Delgo, as many people have heard by now, is the biggest flop in cinematic history. Costing over $40 million, the animated adventure film opened on 2,160 screens… and took in $511,920 over the weekend. Total. That comes out to a whopping $237 per person, or, if you assume that most people went and saw this during the day for matinee prices, approximately 30 person per screen. Say there were four showings a day for three days… that is just over 2 people per showing.

Wow.

A week later, Delgo is apparently nowhere to be seen in theaters around the country – and Freestyle Releasing, the movie’s independent distributor, has erased the film from its database. Look in their Film Library – it doesn’t exist – yet a search in Google from December 14th shows it prominently on the homepage. It is a forgotten film, other than the attention it’s suddenly receiving from its complete and utter failure.

The problem is, the movie received no attention before its release. “Build it and it will come” is not alive and well. Marketing is necessary for any film, especially one opening in wide release. I applaud Marc Adler for wanting to make a movie outside of the normal Hollywood trac, but when you spend $40 million on a film, some of that money has to go to marketing. Marketing, Mr. Adler. Marketing.

Apparently there was a viral campaign for the movie way back when, but when you start such a campaign seven years before the film is released – it’s going to lose steam long before the picture comes to theaters. Having crappy animation doesn’t help, especially in this day and age. The movie trailer is quite terrible, and it isn’t clear whether the movie is an action-comedy for teens or a fantasyland story built for kids. Downright bad movie reviews for Delgo don’t help either.

However, all of that doesn’t amount to such a terrible opening. The terrible opening is a result of pathetic – or nonexistent – marketing. Some people might fault me for saying this, because I do run a movie website and hence should know about all major movies coming to theaters, but before it was released, I had never heard of Delgo. At least I don’t think so. At the very least, I didn’t know it was releasing last Friday. Most movie studios reach out to me and try to get me to promote their films – via email, no less, something that is essentially free. I didn’t hear of Delgo until Monday morning, when I was driving to work and listening to The Adam Carolla Show, and Teressa Strasser was talking about an amazing flop that had just occured. What the heck.

This should be a learning lesson for Mr. Adler… unfortunately, he’s never going to be allowed to release a major movie like this again, and, sadly enough, he and his colleagues, whom I sure pumped their hearts and souls into this movie for almost ten years, have probably lost everything. Regardless of the quality of the film, Adler and everyone else involved were focused on the film… but there’s a business side to it as well that was completely ignored.

The box office pundits can stop guessing, at least somewhat. After a $7 million Friday, analysts still weren’t sure what to make of Twilight as it moved into the weekend. How many of the film’s fans flocked to the midnight showings? Would they still show up in force over the rest of the weekend?

With Friday results in, those questions still linger, but it is clear that Twilight, a movie with a purported $37 million budget, could make as much as $70 million this weekend. Counting the midnight showings, Twilight made $33 million on Friday, a massive intake – especially for a low-budget film. This opening, powered by teenage girls, is absolutely stunning though not completely surprising, considering the fan buzz around the film that has mounted in the past few weeks. I’d say the expectation is that Saturday and Sunday won’t fare as well, as those who really wanted to see the movie Thursday night probably went to go see it on Friday, but even with a low multiplier for the rest of the weekend, the film is in good shape.

Next week will be even more interesting. Given that it’s Thanksgiving weekend, Twilight has the chance to remain huge, but will the fans that poured out this week return for multiple viewings? It’s hard to tell. The weekend essentially gives teenagers four days in a row off, and many families that didn’t want to fight the masses may show up then. Curious non-fans like myself may also turn out, though the mixed reviews may have scared some people into waiting for DVD. Still, Twilight is a blockbuster, and there won’t be a lot of competition all the way until December 12th.

As for the other big movies this weekend, Bolt looks to be shooting for a $27 million weekend, having taken in $7.1 on Friday. This is pretty disappointing for the Disney movie, especially given its moderately good reviews, and you have to wonder just how much tension there is between the Pixar guys, who produce the truly high-quality, high-revenue pictures and the “regular” Disney crew, who just don’t.

Quantum of Solace took in $8.7 on Friday, and should also end up with about $27 million for the weekend. This precipitous drop had to be expected, though one has to ask how much higher the result would have been had word-of-mouth been better. I for one usually go see James Bond movies two or three times in theaters, but my only interest in seeing this one again is to watch it with lessened expectations.

Quantum of Solace, the new James Bond pic, opens this weekend in the United States, two weeks after it opened in other parts of the globe. The movie has already made $161 million, and is primed to crush the $40.8 million opening for Casino Royale a few years ago.

As I’ve said before, I’m no box office expert and won’t pretend to be, but here are what some other websites are saying: (more…)

Walt Disney is going to be very happy this weekend as their unprecedented TV-to-theater movie franchise High School Musical 3 raked in $16.5 million in Friday box office tickets, all but guaranteeing a $50+ million weekend (so says Slash Film) for the harmless teen movie. UPDATE: Slash Film was a bit off… HSM3 made an estimated $42 million over the weekend.

Personally, I thought High School Musical 2 was one of the worst movies I have seen in a very long time; though I am outside of the target market, I just don’t get it. The music is bad, the choreography terrible and the story so sanitized that I don’t get how anybody outside of the most protective of families could enjoy it. Maybe they mixed things up for High School Musical 3, but I highly doubt it.

Anyway, congrats to Disney for turning the most-watched TV movie franchise into a lucrative box office behemoth.

The best thing about High School Musical 3’s box office success? Lionsgate can’t claim complete victory as Saw V opened in second place. The bad news? The movie still made $12.3 million on Friday, good for about $29 million (UPDATE: $30 million) over the weekend. We’re starting to see the gleam come off the Saw movies, but only just. As long as the Saw movies continue to make more in their opening weekend than their entire budget, Lionsgate will continue to produce this crap.

Pride and Glory, the new movie starring Ed Norton and Colin Farrell, opened to only $2.2 million on Friday, good for just over $6 for the box office weekend.

I was over at Box Office Prophets the other day and came across an article/discussion on High School Musical 3, examining the box office fortunes of the upcoming Disney film. I hadn’t really given it much thought, but the analysts at BOP – whom I consider to be right more often than not, at least when it comes to estimating revenues – raised the interesting question: just how much money will High School Musical 3 make?

The first one was a big hit on television, and the second was a downright monster, with 27 million people tuning in when it debuted. Disney, wisely, has decided to transfer the film to the big screen, where they can actually make some real money off of it. But just how much?

As BOP points out, the potential box office for High School Musical 3 is anyone’s guess, though the analysts who took the conversative route and suggested under $50 million on opening weekend were pretty much ridiculed. On the high end, one went as far to suggest it could make $100 million in its opening weekend. Thus, middle-of-the-road estimates were around $70 million. $70 million! For High School Musical 3? In its opening weekend?

God, it’s so hard to tell. BOP is right, in that there is mad demand for the franchise. They may well be right. But logically, I just can’t see $70 million worth of people going to theaters on opening weekend to see an overly cheerful, colorful, poorly written and poorly acted piece of theater. And if they do, I still won’t understand. I made the mistake of watching High School Musical 2, and it was one of the most terrible things I had seen in a long time. I understand that parents want their kids to watch something wholesome and harmless, which the High School Musical franchise is, but the songs are just so annoying and poorly choreographed that I just don’t get it.

Either way, I hope BOP is wrong, but now I am very, very nervous at the prospect that High School Musical 3 will, indeed, be a box office monster.

The Friday box office results for August 1, 2008 are in, and it’s going to be a close one for box office crown. We have two films vying for first place this weekend: The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, the unwanted sequel starring Brenden Fraser, and the very-much-wanted sequel and box office behemoth The Dark Knight.

The Mummy 3 won the Friday battle, raking in $15.5 million, but it may not win the war. The Dark Knight dropped 45% from last weekend – still pretty damn good for a blockbuster of its size – to add another $12.8 million to its cume. Nevertheless, those smart analysts over at  Box Office Prophets except, with some uncertainty, that the Batman movie may come out on top when final box office numbers are counted. For starters, The Mummy 3 may be a little bit frontloaded – whereas The Dark Knight has proven that people want to see it consistently any day of the week. At the very least, if it comes down to the wire, I could see Universal hedging the numbers a bit so that when the weekend box office estimates come out, The Mummy 3 is sitting on top.

Irregardless, this is a win for Universal. After the disaster that was The Mummy 2 (granted, it made a ton of money), Universal has to be pleased with a $40+ million opening weekend. While it didn’t look as bad as The Mummy Returns, the presence of yetis and poorly designed dragons – as well as God-awful reviews – had the average moviegoer thinking that this was a down-and-out release. I had pretty much forgotten that this was part of a very successful movie franchise, and that it’s still summer – a good amount of money can still be made.

As for The Dark Knight, the good news is that by the end of the weekend it will be closing in on $400 million, the fastest movie to do so. The bad news is that now, it is looking less and less likely that it will knock Titanic off its throne.

Kevin Costner’s Swing Vote, by the way, flopped with only $1.9 million on Friday, begging for a $5-6 million weekend. I feel bad for Costner, as I really want him to get a hit one of these days. That being said, it was clear from the beginning that Swing Vote was not going to be that comeback he so desperately needs.

Going into last week, I had a very strategic, three-touch plan to seeing The Dark Knight. I would see it opening night, at midnight, with all the freaks and geeks. I would then see it a few days later with my parents. I would then see it a third time on IMAX, as I’ve never seen a “real” movie on IMAX before. (more…)

The Friday box office estimates are in for the June 27-29 weekend, giving us a hint of what the final box office numbers will be. Many box office analysts expected both the family-friendly Wall-E and the R-rated action movie Wanted to do well, but the box office weekend is shaping up to a be a bigger one than first expected.

Wall-E, which was expected to be the big winner of the weekend, took in $23.3 million on Friday alone, shaping up for approximately $67 million over the three-day span. That’s just shy of Pixar’s record with The Incredibles, which took in a little over $70 million a few years ago. It’s also a lot higher than what the excellent Ratatouille opened to last year.

Wanted, which stars Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy, took in a whopping $18.7 million on Friday, which should lead to a much higher than expected $53 million weekend. Wanted will be the biggest June R-rated opening ever, knocking off Knocked Up’s $30.6 million.

Get Smart and The Love Guru open this weekend in a rare big comedy vs. big comedy battle. Of course, it’s not going to be much of a battle.

In one corner, we have Steve Carell’s Get Smart, which has looked funny from the first preview of Carell stuck in a phone booth. In the other corner, the absolutely God-awful looking The Love Guru, which stars Mike Myers retreading what he’s already done before – only much, much worse (read the Love Guru movie review).

Despite last year’s disaster Evan Almighty, Carell is in the prime of his career. With The Office and The 40-Year Old Virgin still fresh on people’s minds, not to mention the great Get Smart previews, I expect big things for this movie. As for The Love Guru… I am expecting Little Nicky type numbers, only maybe not that bad.

Neither film has received very good reviews, but Get Smart should handily win the weekend. I’m not a box office expert, and in fact I rarely make box office predictions, but I’ve been seeing box office predictions for Get Smart between the $40 and $50 million mark. For The Love Guru, anywhere from $20 to $35 million.

Now, I’m not generally one to oppose weekend box office estimates, but I’m a little surprised by these numbers. I believe Get Smart is going to make close to $60 million, and The Love Guru less than $20. Yes, I think Get Smart is going to do that well at the box office, and The Love Guru that pitiful. I will be disappointed if The Love Guru makes more than that.

Yesterday, box office predictions had Kung Fu Panda expected to make in the low-to-mid fifties and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan making around $32 million. Those weekend box office predictions were way off.

The Jack Black family film Kung Fu Panda, the first big animated movie of the year, earned $20.3 million on Friday according to Box Office Prophets, which means that the DreamWorks picture is expected to make approximately $65 million over the course of the weekend. Aside from the Shrek movies, this is DreamWork’s biggest animated opening ever.

As for Adam Sandler, who didn’t suffer either. Most analysts had his movie pegged at making $15-20 million less than the more family-friendly fare opening this weekend, and they were right. However, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, where Sandler plays a former Israeli counter terrorist who moves to New York to fulfill his dream of cutting hair only to be pursued by his former enemies, earned $15.2 million on Friday, which should lead to a $41 million opening. Those who were questioning whether Sandler’s time was fading after the disappointing Chuck and Larry were… wrong.

From the numbers I pulled yesterday, Entertainment Weekly was closest to estimating Panda’s numbers, as it had predicted $60 million in box office receipts. They were the second worst at predicting Zohan’s numbers, however. Box Office Report came closest to predicting Zohan’s numbers with a $38 million box office estimate.