Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Animated Picture at 2008’s Academy Award show? The nominations are three:

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf’s Up

As people have surmised from my other posts, Ratatouille is my easy pick for Best Animated Picture. The movie (temporarily) showed up on my Top Ten Movies of 2007, was one of my recommendations for Best Visual Effects, and is just an all around great movie. The movie is smart and witty, to the point where it’s actually been nominated for an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. How many animated films get that respect?

I have yet to see Persepolis, but it looks quite good and could certainly be a dark horse winner. The problem with this “animated” West Bank film taking home the Academy Award is that adult-only cartoons rarely win Oscars and that few of the voters have probably seen the movie. Ratatouille has been out on DVD for months, guaranteeing that nearly every voter has probably popped it in for a viewing. I would be very surprised if Persepolis beat out Ratatouille, Pixar’s best movie since The Incredibles.

As for Surf’s Up, this is the obligatory third wheel nomination. In actually, the movie, about surfing penguins, is much better than the previews made it out to be, but its documentary-style approach and lack of spectacular visuals won’t resonate as Best Animated Film material.

With the Oscars fast approaching, I figured I’d better start writing about my Oscar picks and predictions. I’ll start with one of the easier categories, the Best Visual Effects category. For the 2008 Academy Awards, three movies are nominated:

• Transformers
  If this one doesn’t win, I’ll shoot someone. Or I’ll punch a pillow. Or I’ll just shake my head in dismay. The special effects in Transformers are just outstanding, and blew everyone away with how well Michael Bay’s crew seamlessly brought together humans, Los Angeles and gigantic robots that so easily could have ended up being cheesy. This is certainly my pick and prediction. It also helps that the movie was well received with critics and audiences alike.
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
  On the flip side, this third Pirates movie sucked. Of course, not everyone agrees, but neither critics nor audiences were overwhelmingly blown away by the “end” to this franchise (does anyone really believe it’s over?). That being said, the visuals are quite good in it… but are they as good as Transformer’s? No way. If this one wins, I will be highly disappointed.
• The Golden Compass
  How did this one get on the list? The box office thud had pretty good visual effects, but not great visual effects. They were a little rough around the edges at times, and at the very least didn’t work seamlessly with the rest of the movie. As I will discuss below, there are several movies more deserving of a nomination.

So, what do I think of the nominations? Two of the films don’t surprise me, but The Golden Compass did. Before the nominees were announced, I was actually torn between Transformers and 300 for the top spot. I’ve quite shocked that 300 didn’t get any recognition, given its thunderous box office domination, audience praise and stunning visuals. Were the visuals as good as they are in Transformers? No, maybe not, but the visuals absolutely made 300 the spectacle that it was, and that has to count for something. I mean, the visuals are just amazing in that movie… how the hell did it not get nominated?

Another film that I felt should have been considered is Ratatouille. I’m not sure if there are rules against animated films getting nominated in this category, but Pixar made an amazing little film with some amazing visual effects. Pixar once again set the bar for animated films with this movie.

So, needless to say, I was a bit surprised and not overly happy about the Oscar nominations for Best Visual Effects, but it does make my choice for the Academy Award winner that much easier… Transformers!

I haven’t seen many blogs discussing this, so I thought I’d raise the question: Could Heath Ledger win an Oscar for his portrayal of The Joker in the upcoming Batman movie The Dark Knight? At the very least, could he receive an Oscar nomination?

The thought is unlikely - after all, action movies - especially action movies based on comic books featuring a man dressed up in a rubber bat suit - are hardly critical fodder for nominations of any sort outside of a few technical awards such as editing and visual effects. Jack Nicholson didn’t receive any major awards, or nominations, for his portrayal of Batman’s arch nemesis - and yet he was praised for his performance and is, at least for a few more months, still considered to have the best comic book villain performance ever.

But… is Academy Award recognition, whether it be through a win or a nomination, that unreasonably for the late Heath Ledger, who died earlier this week from an apparent drug overdose? Let’s look at the possibilities:

• Heath Ledger already has an Oscar nomination for his excellent performance in Brokeback Mountain. Repeat nominees often have a better chance.
• Heath Ledger was a good looking guy, and in his upcoming role, he plays a disfigured psychopath. Oscar voters love good-looking people who make themselves ugly (though this tend to applies more to women than men).
• The Dark Knight is a comic book movie, yes, but of all of the comic book movies that could have had a chance at award nominations, Oscar or otherwise, Batman Begins is the most serious, dramatically significant, character-driven film of them all. Expectations are that The Dark Knight is going to have the same brooding, dark approach to it that the previous film had.
• The Dark Knight is directed for Christopher Nolan, who so far has yet to direct a bad movie. Popular, critically favored directors can help elevate a film and its actors.
• The buzz around Heath Ledger’s performance, even before his death, was and is huge. Snippets of his performance that have been seen in trailers and clips have been downright terrifying.
• It looks like Heath Ledger has transformed himself into the villain of villains, and will do what no other actor has done: to overshadow Jack Nicholson’s portrayal of The Joker.
• Some people are blaming Heath Ledger’s death on his devotion and submersion into his role as The Joker; the actor was apparently only sleeping a couple hours a night because The Joker was so disturbing and evil. It is possible that Ledger overdosed on sleeping pills. Essentially, it is possible that Heath Ledger “died” as a result of playing The Joker.
• Heath Ledger is dead. Let’s face it - the emotional vote is in his favor.

To push on my last point a little more, madbeast.com says there are six actors to be nominated for acting Oscars posthumously:

• Jeanne Eagels received a Best Actress nomination months after dying of a Heroin overdose.
• James Dean received two nominations after his fatal car crash.
• Spencer Tracy received his ninth Best Actor nomination after dying.
• Peter Finch died of a heart attack some say was a result of an exhaustive effort to win the Oscar for Network. After WINNING THE AWARD, his costar and fellow nominee William Holden said, “If the son of a bitch
  hadn’t died, I could have won my second Oscar.” Hmm…
• Ralph Richardson died five months before his Tarzan movie was released; he was subsequently nominated.
• Massimo Troisi died a day after completing Il Postino; he received nominations for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay.

So, again, we realize that a Batman film is an unlikely place to find an Oscar-winning performance in any way or form, but actors have been nominated posthumously before. The Dark Knight comes out in the summer, not a very good time to showcase an actor’s capabilities for Oscar voters, but the film will be hitting DVD sometime before Christmas, and it will hit big. Every voter will see the movie, and every voter will be reminded of Heath Ledger’s death.

Until that day, who knows, but it’s certainly an interesting prospect. What do you think?

The Oscars are almost upon us! Sure, the writer’s strike may destroy things, but I’m pretty sure everything will be resolved before February 24th, 2008. Anyway, the Academy Award nominations for 2007 movies were released yesterday, and today I re-launched my Oscar database with all nominees and winners for years 2004 through 2006, and the nominees for 2007.

I’m sure you’ve already checked them out, but here are the 2007 Oscar nominations on FilmJabber.

Over the next several weeks, I will analyze each category with my picks, predictions and thoughts. Who do I think was snubbed? Who got lucky? Which categories are most competitive, and which are a near absolute?

Let me just say that I am pretty impressed with the Oscar nominations this year. I knew that The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford wouldn’t get nominated for Best Picture, even though it was brilliant, but the movie did get recognized in a few categories, most notably Casey Affleck for Best Supporting Actor (even though he was the leading actor in the film). This is a film and actor that could have easily been overlooked, but the Academy voters were smart enough to recognize some great stuff when they saw it.

There are a couple categories where I haven’t chosen a pick yet, since I’ve only seen one film out of the five (in the Best Actress category, I’ve only seen Juno). Best Supporting Actor is an amazingly tough choice. Interestingly enough, while I choice Atonement as the best movie of the year in my Top 10 Movies of 2007, I’m rooting for There Will Be Blood to win. It’s just a bolder film, and I will be a bit surprised if it wins (since it will split votes with No Country for Old Men).

View my picks for the 2007 Academy Awards (or are they the 2008 Academy Awards?). Please note that these are MY PICKS, and not necessarily MY PREDICTIONS. Those will come later.