Yes, G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra overcame incredibly bad buzz and horribly cheesy movie trailers to make $56.2 million in its opening weekend, the fourth-highest August opening ever. This amounts to a per-screen average of over $14,000.

I am floored. With everything that I have seen over the last eight months regarding this money, I was hoping – almost fanatically praying – that audiences would ignore the strong brand name and give it a $20 million opening or so. I thought it was going to be this year’s Speed Racer. But I fell into the trap movie buffs like me can fall into so easily: I took my personal opinions and extended them to expectations for the film’s box office performance. I ignored the fact that Paramount has been marketing this film relentlessly; that they were being very selective about who they screened the movie to; that this movie is, in fact, using one of the strongest toy and cartoon brands out there; and that people will go see mindless action films.

But, America… why?

The only dignity I can hold onto is that despite its fantastic opening, G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra is rumored to have cost $200 million (with a lot more spent on marketing) and that it is highly unlikely the film well get to that level. The people who wants to see this movie saw it this weekend; and next weekend, it will plummet over 60%. But I’m no box office expert, so that’s just me hoping.

In other weekend box office news, Julie & Julia opened strong in second with $20.1 million, a pretty good take for a cutesy movie that didn’t seem to have  a very strong hook. Funny People plummeted to fifth with only $7.9 million, making this movie Judd Apatow’s first directorial failure. A Perfect Getaway, despite a 71% fresh rating from the Top Critics, opened in seventh with only $5.8 million – a poor release date and lack of promotion killed this one. Lastly, the excellent romantic film (500) Days of Summer broke into tenth place with $3.7 million against only 817 venues.

For the full list of box office winners and losers, visit the FilmJabber homepage or read Box Office Prophet’s analysis.

The Hangover

Up earned another $30 million, while The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 debuted in third with an okay $25 million. Eddie Murphy’s Imagine That fell flat with only $5.7 million.

I finally posted my Hangover movie review… Read on for more…

In The Hangover, a desperate bride finally reaches her fiancé’s best man five hours before the wedding and is informed that the event is not going to happen. It’s not that the groom, Doug (played by Justin Bartha), has changed his mind; it’s just that his three friends can’t find him, and they don’t remember what happened. Cue the opening credits.

The Hangover is a man’s movie, but not one that resorts to ridiculous over-the-top storytelling for the sake of it. One of the more clever comedies in recent memory, the movie makes us laugh while keeping us guessing as to what happened and where the groom is. After the first scene, the movie jumps back two days to introduce us to the eclectic group of guys that will be taking part in the bachelor party in Vegas. Then, we see is the three “survivors,” played by coolheaded Bradley Cooper, pushover Ed Helms and strangely idiotic Zach Galifianakis (he changed his name when he became an actor, clearly), waking up to find their penthouse suite trashed and burned. Doug’s bed is literally missing, and there is a tiger in the bathroom.

Read the rest of The Hangover movie review.

Few people are crying over this.

Up, the expected box office winner, earned approximately $13 million on Friday, and will most likely wind up at around $40 million for the entire frame, given its rave reviews and family appeal.

The big surprise, however, is The Hangover, a comedy that really hasn’t been marketed all that much despite the fact that it’s from the director of Old School. The R-rated comedy, which is generally receiving good reviews, opened to $16 million on Friday, and could remain #1 throughout the weekend if the cards are played right.

Thanks to Get the Big Picture and Box Office Mojo for the numbers/analysis.

Given just how bad The Da Vinci Code was, and how much more brand recognition that Dan Brown book has versus this one, $48 million can’t really be considered a disappointment; in fact, it’s a little higher than what some analysts were predicting. Still, for a middle-of-May “blockbuster,” $48 million isn’t all that much, and given its rather dismal reviews, strong legs may not be in its future. Expect this one to fade quickly, at least domestically (internationally, the movie has already made over $100 million, so no one can truly consider it a box office disappointment).

Star Trek dropped only 43% in its second weekend, a sign of strong legs. This movie is soon going to surpass X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which made $14.8 million this weekend after a 44% drop, despite starting out with a lower opening weekend a week later.

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past continues to show that there is room for counterprogramming, as it dropped 33% to bring its total up to $40 million.

Visit the FilmJabber homepage for the full box office top ten. I get my numbers from Box Office Prophets, who do a great weekend recap each week.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine continues its downward slide, falling another 44% to earn $14.8 million this weekend. To put it another way, despite opening $10 million higher and a week earlier, its $151 million domestic box office take is only $4 million higher than that of Star Trek, and it will be surpassed and left in the dust midweek. Had Fox and Marvel actually devoted some time to make this movie good, this might not be happening.

Anyway, here’s my second-ever video movie review, which looks at X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I definitely have to upgrade from Windows Movie Maker to something a little cooler where I can actually add some B-roll and shit to the production…

If you prefer, you can read my much-more-eloquant Wolverine movie review here.

Star Trek

The final weekend tally, including the Thursday evening numbers, was $79 million.

An even better sign for Paramount was the amount the movie earned on Monday, May 11. Its box office revenue was $7.5 million, much better than Wolverine’s Monday take last week, which was $5.4 million. As a better example, Iron Man last year dropped from its $100 million take to $6.9 on Monday, a much larger percentage drop.

Even though Angels & Demons is going to be big, it’s not going be as disruptive of a competitor as Star Trek was to Wolverine, for instance. In other words, Paramount must be seeing gold.

Paramount must be seeing gold.

This new Star Trek sailed through that number sometime on Saturday, and will finish out the box office weekend with an estimated $76.5 in box office receipts. Saturday’s numbers were higher than Friday’s, indicating that the picture isn’t completely frontloaded due to a fan boy rush, either – which isn’t all that surprising given the general appeal this picture has. For the first time ever, my casual moviegoing friends, including all of my female friends, want to go see a Star Trek film, and that says something.

Sure, $76.5 million isn’t as huge of an opening as last week’s blockbuster blunder X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but no one was expecting it to top that one. However, given that Wolverine plummeted 68% to only $27 million in its second weekend, it’s quite likely that Star Trek – with glowing reviews and strong word of mouth – will surpass the film in a long run.

J.J. Abrams has successfully rebooted the Star Trek franchise, and Trekkies who have been upset about the changes made should rethink their position: it’s either this or nothing, and this is pretty damn good.

In other box office weekend news, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past showed good legs given its lack of competition, as it dropped only 30% to $10 million this weekend. Next Day Air, the only other new release and one that no one has even heard of (I haven’t seen a single commercial or preview) debuted with only $4 million, albeit on just over 1,000 screens.

With Friday results in, those questions still linger, but it is clear that Twilight, a movie with a purported $37 million budget, could make as much as $70 million this weekend. Counting the midnight showings, Twilight made $33 million on Friday, a massive intake – especially for a low-budget film. This opening, powered by teenage girls, is absolutely stunning though not completely surprising, considering the fan buzz around the film that has mounted in the past few weeks. I’d say the expectation is that Saturday and Sunday won’t fare as well, as those who really wanted to see the movie Thursday night probably went to go see it on Friday, but even with a low multiplier for the rest of the weekend, the film is in good shape.

Next week will be even more interesting. Given that it’s Thanksgiving weekend, Twilight has the chance to remain huge, but will the fans that poured out this week return for multiple viewings? It’s hard to tell. The weekend essentially gives teenagers four days in a row off, and many families that didn’t want to fight the masses may show up then. Curious non-fans like myself may also turn out, though the mixed reviews may have scared some people into waiting for DVD. Still, Twilight is a blockbuster, and there won’t be a lot of competition all the way until December 12th.

As for the other big movies this weekend, Bolt looks to be shooting for a $27 million weekend, having taken in $7.1 on Friday. This is pretty disappointing for the Disney movie, especially given its moderately good reviews, and you have to wonder just how much tension there is between the Pixar guys, who produce the truly high-quality, high-revenue pictures and the “regular” Disney crew, who just don’t.

Quantum of Solace took in $8.7 on Friday, and should also end up with about $27 million for the weekend. This precipitous drop had to be expected, though one has to ask how much higher the result would have been had word-of-mouth been better. I for one usually go see James Bond movies two or three times in theaters, but my only interest in seeing this one again is to watch it with lessened expectations.

Personally, I thought High School Musical 2 was one of the worst movies I have seen in a very long time; though I am outside of the target market, I just don’t get it. The music is bad, the choreography terrible and the story so sanitized that I don’t get how anybody outside of the most protective of families could enjoy it. Maybe they mixed things up for High School Musical 3, but I highly doubt it.

Anyway, congrats to Disney for turning the most-watched TV movie franchise into a lucrative box office behemoth.

The best thing about High School Musical 3’s box office success? Lionsgate can’t claim complete victory as Saw V opened in second place. The bad news? The movie still made $12.3 million on Friday, good for about $29 million (UPDATE: $30 million) over the weekend. We’re starting to see the gleam come off the Saw movies, but only just. As long as the Saw movies continue to make more in their opening weekend than their entire budget, Lionsgate will continue to produce this crap.

Pride and Glory, the new movie starring Ed Norton and Colin Farrell, opened to only $2.2 million on Friday, good for just over $6 for the box office weekend.

The first one was a big hit on television, and the second was a downright monster, with 27 million people tuning in when it debuted. Disney, wisely, has decided to transfer the film to the big screen, where they can actually make some real money off of it. But just how much?

As BOP points out, the potential box office for High School Musical 3 is anyone’s guess, though the analysts who took the conversative route and suggested under $50 million on opening weekend were pretty much ridiculed. On the high end, one went as far to suggest it could make $100 million in its opening weekend. Thus, middle-of-the-road estimates were around $70 million. $70 million! For High School Musical 3? In its opening weekend?

God, it’s so hard to tell. BOP is right, in that there is mad demand for the franchise. They may well be right. But logically, I just can’t see $70 million worth of people going to theaters on opening weekend to see an overly cheerful, colorful, poorly written and poorly acted piece of theater. And if they do, I still won’t understand. I made the mistake of watching High School Musical 2, and it was one of the most terrible things I had seen in a long time. I understand that parents want their kids to watch something wholesome and harmless, which the High School Musical franchise is, but the songs are just so annoying and poorly choreographed that I just don’t get it.

Either way, I hope BOP is wrong, but now I am very, very nervous at the prospect that High School Musical 3 will, indeed, be a box office monster.