The Friday box office results for August 1, 2008 are in, and it’s going to be a close one for box office crown. We have two films vying for first place this weekend: The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, the unwanted sequel starring Brenden Fraser, and the very-much-wanted sequel and box office behemoth The Dark Knight.

The Mummy 3 won the Friday battle, raking in $15.5 million, but it may not win the war. The Dark Knight dropped 45% from last weekend – still pretty damn good for a blockbuster of its size – to add another $12.8 million to its cume. Nevertheless, those smart analysts over at  Box Office Prophets except, with some uncertainty, that the Batman movie may come out on top when final box office numbers are counted. For starters, The Mummy 3 may be a little bit frontloaded – whereas The Dark Knight has proven that people want to see it consistently any day of the week. At the very least, if it comes down to the wire, I could see Universal hedging the numbers a bit so that when the weekend box office estimates come out, The Mummy 3 is sitting on top.

Irregardless, this is a win for Universal. After the disaster that was The Mummy 2 (granted, it made a ton of money), Universal has to be pleased with a $40+ million opening weekend. While it didn’t look as bad as The Mummy Returns, the presence of yetis and poorly designed dragons – as well as God-awful reviews – had the average moviegoer thinking that this was a down-and-out release. I had pretty much forgotten that this was part of a very successful movie franchise, and that it’s still summer – a good amount of money can still be made.

As for The Dark Knight, the good news is that by the end of the weekend it will be closing in on $400 million, the fastest movie to do so. The bad news is that now, it is looking less and less likely that it will knock Titanic off its throne.

Kevin Costner’s Swing Vote, by the way, flopped with only $1.9 million on Friday, begging for a $5-6 million weekend. I feel bad for Costner, as I really want him to get a hit one of these days. That being said, it was clear from the beginning that Swing Vote was not going to be that comeback he so desperately needs.

The X-Files: I Want to Believe opened to a disastrous $10.2 million over its opening weekend, begging the question of how a movie based on one of the most successful movies of all time could do so poorly at the box office, even against the likes of The Dark Knight. While some box office analysts have mused that it was simply too long of a wait since the end of the TV show and that audiences had moved on to bigger and better things, I don’t think that has anything to do with anything. However, I believe the following are a few reasons why The X-Files: I Want to Believe failed to deliver:

1. The marketing was disastrous. While Warner Brothers was out promoting The Dark Knight feverishly, hitting up websites, movie theaters, TV and every other medium with advertisements, previews, images, posters and more, Fox was… well, not doing much at all. I didn’t get a single email from them asking to promote the film; there weren’t a slew of character posters or compelling images; there wasn’t much sign that the movie was coming to theaters at all. Furthermore, the news hardly talked about it all; PR failed miserably.
2. The movie trailers were bad. I didn’t think they were terrible, but then again, I’m an “X-Files” fan who was just excited that the film was coming to theaters. The movie was supposed to appeal to fans and non-fans alike, but the trailers, which lacked any kind of excitement or power, offered nothing of value to bite on.
3. Chris Carter kept the story under wraps. It’s understandable that 20th Century Fox and Carter wanted to keep the plot secret, but whereas Cloverfield, Indiana Jones and even The Dark Knight used this to their advantage to build hype and excitement, Fox did nothing more than lead fans down a few false paths.
4. The title is horrible. I mean really, really horrible. What were they thinking? I Want to Believe? What a dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb title.
5. Fox decided to release this movie a week after The Dark Knight. Sure, they couldn’t have known that Batman was going to be that big, but ever since the first pictures of The Joker appeared online – and especially since Heath Ledger died – the buzz was obvious. Fox should have moved The X-Files: I Want to Believe to another weekend within seconds.
6. There were no marathons or promotion of the show. For the last year, Fox should have been released special DVD sets, running marathons on TV and launching clips online. X-Files should have been everywhere, and it was nowhere.
7. The movie isn’t very good. Ultimately, good reviews would have given this film a bit of a boost, and it just wasn’t good enough to get them. The movie is a bit dull, the story unimaginative. While the marketing group should have done a lot better, admittedly, they didn’t have much to work with. (read my X-Files 2 movie review here)

Going into last week, I had a very strategic, three-touch plan to seeing The Dark Knight. I would see it opening night, at midnight, with all the freaks and geeks. I would then see it a few days later with my parents. I would then see it a third time on IMAX, as I’ve never seen a “real” movie on IMAX before. (more…)

The Friday box office estimates are in for the June 27-29 weekend, giving us a hint of what the final box office numbers will be. Many box office analysts expected both the family-friendly Wall-E and the R-rated action movie Wanted to do well, but the box office weekend is shaping up to a be a bigger one than first expected.

Wall-E, which was expected to be the big winner of the weekend, took in $23.3 million on Friday alone, shaping up for approximately $67 million over the three-day span. That’s just shy of Pixar’s record with The Incredibles, which took in a little over $70 million a few years ago. It’s also a lot higher than what the excellent Ratatouille opened to last year.

Wanted, which stars Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy, took in a whopping $18.7 million on Friday, which should lead to a much higher than expected $53 million weekend. Wanted will be the biggest June R-rated opening ever, knocking off Knocked Up’s $30.6 million.

Yesterday, box office predictions had Kung Fu Panda expected to make in the low-to-mid fifties and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan making around $32 million. Those weekend box office predictions were way off.

The Jack Black family film Kung Fu Panda, the first big animated movie of the year, earned $20.3 million on Friday according to Box Office Prophets, which means that the DreamWorks picture is expected to make approximately $65 million over the course of the weekend. Aside from the Shrek movies, this is DreamWork’s biggest animated opening ever.

As for Adam Sandler, who didn’t suffer either. Most analysts had his movie pegged at making $15-20 million less than the more family-friendly fare opening this weekend, and they were right. However, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, where Sandler plays a former Israeli counter terrorist who moves to New York to fulfill his dream of cutting hair only to be pursued by his former enemies, earned $15.2 million on Friday, which should lead to a $41 million opening. Those who were questioning whether Sandler’s time was fading after the disappointing Chuck and Larry were… wrong.

From the numbers I pulled yesterday, Entertainment Weekly was closest to estimating Panda’s numbers, as it had predicted $60 million in box office receipts. They were the second worst at predicting Zohan’s numbers, however. Box Office Report came closest to predicting Zohan’s numbers with a $38 million box office estimate.

Two big films open this weekend, both looking at diametrically different audiences. In one corner, we have You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, the Adam Sandler comedy almost guaranteed to capture a good chunk of the lucrative teenage fan base, and in the other, Kung Fu Panda, the first major animated film of the year. It’s Sandler versus Jack Black, gross-out vs. PG, old versus new.

Neither film looks particularly good. Kung Fu Panda seems like a lot of special effects without much substance, as the previews fail to suggest that there’s much of a story or comedy to be found. Seriously, the previews aren’t funny at all, and if I want to watch Kung Fu, I’ll watch Bruce Lee. As for Zohan, I always hold out hope that Adam Sandler can deliver something entertaining – and there are some funny moments in the previews – but after I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry turned out to be pretty terrible, I am hesitant.

Needless to say, neither film inspires much love from me, and unless I want to see Sex and the City this weekend, this may be a good couple of days to relax and enjoy the warm weather. Unfortunately, I live in Seattle, where it’s in the 50’s and raining.

On to the weekend box office predictions for the movie. I’m no box office expert, so I’ll leave the analysis to all the so-called box office experts floating around on the Internet. May was a tough month for box office analysts, though you can hardly blame them. Who would have thought Iron Man would open to $100 million? That Prince Caspian would so under-deliver? That Sex and the City would dominate so mightily? That The Strangers would actually do well? Anyway, here are the weekend box office predictions for the June 6 – 8 weekend:

• Blog Critics Magazine estimates $48 million for Panda and $34 million for Zohan.
• Digressions with Mark the Movie Guy estimates $55 million for Panda and $30-32 million for Zohan
• Box Office Prophets estimates $57 million for Panda and $30 million for Zohan
• Box Office Report shows $52 million for Panda and $38 million for Zohan
• Box Office Psychics has Panda at $45 million and Zohan at $37 million
• Rotten Tomatoes says Panda will earn $52 million versus Zohan’s $35 million
• EW.com has Panda making a whopping $60 million against Zohan’s $32 million
• Box Office Guru puts Panda at $52 million and Zohan at $35 million

So, it looks like Adam Sandler really doesn’t stand a chance, which is not really too surprising. Kung Fu Panda appeals to the masses; You Don’t Mess with the Zohan will appeal to Sandler fans. It’ll be interesting to see how Panda actually does, though, as there are bound to be some more box office disappointments over the course of the summer.

View more new releases this weekend…

Sex and the City comes to theaters this weekend, and I have to imagine that box office pundits are nervous about making predictions for this one. It’s a highly anticipated film – among women. In fact, it’s one of the rare female-targeted films that is opening to midnight screenings. A movie theater near me is selling $90 tickets for a three-course meal, Cosmos and a ticket. Sex and the City: The Movie is an event by any stretch of the imagination.

Then again, it’s still a movie aimed toward women. What does that mean for box office dollars? $30 million? $40 million? $60 million? Higher?

Here are some predictions:

• $45 million from Movie Reviews by Wes
• $35 million  from Fantasy Moguls (this is a great, in-depth analysis, by the way)
• ??? from The Cairns Blog
• $45 million from Beukey on Pop Culture
• $53 million from Box Office Report

In general, it sounds like $30-35 million is the average most “experts” are predicting, and if so, that will be a great feat for a film like Sex and the City, which stars a bunch of “older” women. That being said, don’t you think an event film like this will be considered just a slight disappointment if it comes in second to Indiana Jones? Indiana Jones will fall hard this weekend, but falling from $100 million still means a lot of money.

Vindication is wonderful. Speed Racer, the awful-looking action-racing film from the Wachowski brothers, is the first flop of the summer season as it took in only $6.1 million according to Friday box office estimates. According to Box Office Prophets, the movie will take in approximately $20-$21 million over the weekend. No matter how you cut it, a movie that costs between $100-$120 million is expected to open to more than $20 million in its opening weekend, and I would expect a huge 60% drop next weekend. After all, with Chronicles of Narnia and Indiana Jones coming over the next 13 days, Speed Racer will have no place to breath.

This made my weekend.

Beyond Speed Racer, Iron Man will once again win the weekend with just under $40 million, though I’m surprised the hit action film didn’t do better in its second weekend. As good as it is, I was expecting some people to return to theaters this weekend – or for holdouts to be lured in by quality reviews – but $40 million, following a $100 million opening weekend, implies that isn’t the case. Still, no one’s complaining.

What Happens in Vegas earned $7.1 million on Friday, good for a $20 million opening. That’s pretty good for the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy.

Iron Man, the Robert Downey, Jr.-starring action movie, made $32 million on Friday, May 2nd to conquer the weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. Since it’s 8pm opening on Thursday, the movie has made $38 million, meaning it that it is going to make a ton of money by the time Sunday closes.

Read my Iron Man movie review here.

Made of Honor, the only other major release this weekend, came in second, earning $5.4 million on Friday. I guess counter-programming paid off in this case.

Based on Friday box office estimates, Baby Mama, the Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy, declared victory over the stoner sequel Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay.

Baby Mama earned $6.28 million on Friday compared to Harold and Kumar’s $5.7; while I’m no box office expert, given the kind of comedies each of those films are, that is probably enough of a gap to keep Baby Mama the winner through the weekend.

I’m not too surprised, as Baby Mama plays to a more general audience, whereas Harold and Kumar targets a younger crowd. Baby Mama didn’t look all too good to me, but, then again, Tina Fey pulled off Mean Girls so anything can happen. As for me, I went to a sold-out showing of Harold and Kumar last night – you can read my movie review here.

Forgetting Sarah Marshall came in third with $3.4 million, while newcomer Deception, which most people haven’t heard of despite starring Ewan McGregor and Hugh Jackman, earned a paltry $760,000.

These numbers come from BoxOfficeMojo.com.