Walt Disney is going to be very happy this weekend as their unprecedented TV-to-theater movie franchise High School Musical 3 raked in $16.5 million in Friday box office tickets, all but guaranteeing a $50+ million weekend (so says Slash Film) for the harmless teen movie. UPDATE: Slash Film was a bit off… HSM3 made an estimated $42 million over the weekend.

Personally, I thought High School Musical 2 was one of the worst movies I have seen in a very long time; though I am outside of the target market, I just don’t get it. The music is bad, the choreography terrible and the story so sanitized that I don’t get how anybody outside of the most protective of families could enjoy it. Maybe they mixed things up for High School Musical 3, but I highly doubt it.

Anyway, congrats to Disney for turning the most-watched TV movie franchise into a lucrative box office behemoth.

The best thing about High School Musical 3’s box office success? Lionsgate can’t claim complete victory as Saw V opened in second place. The bad news? The movie still made $12.3 million on Friday, good for about $29 million (UPDATE: $30 million) over the weekend. We’re starting to see the gleam come off the Saw movies, but only just. As long as the Saw movies continue to make more in their opening weekend than their entire budget, Lionsgate will continue to produce this crap.

Pride and Glory, the new movie starring Ed Norton and Colin Farrell, opened to only $2.2 million on Friday, good for just over $6 for the box office weekend.

I was over at Box Office Prophets the other day and came across an article/discussion on High School Musical 3, examining the box office fortunes of the upcoming Disney film. I hadn’t really given it much thought, but the analysts at BOP – whom I consider to be right more often than not, at least when it comes to estimating revenues – raised the interesting question: just how much money will High School Musical 3 make?

The first one was a big hit on television, and the second was a downright monster, with 27 million people tuning in when it debuted. Disney, wisely, has decided to transfer the film to the big screen, where they can actually make some real money off of it. But just how much?

As BOP points out, the potential box office for High School Musical 3 is anyone’s guess, though the analysts who took the conversative route and suggested under $50 million on opening weekend were pretty much ridiculed. On the high end, one went as far to suggest it could make $100 million in its opening weekend. Thus, middle-of-the-road estimates were around $70 million. $70 million! For High School Musical 3? In its opening weekend?

God, it’s so hard to tell. BOP is right, in that there is mad demand for the franchise. They may well be right. But logically, I just can’t see $70 million worth of people going to theaters on opening weekend to see an overly cheerful, colorful, poorly written and poorly acted piece of theater. And if they do, I still won’t understand. I made the mistake of watching High School Musical 2, and it was one of the most terrible things I had seen in a long time. I understand that parents want their kids to watch something wholesome and harmless, which the High School Musical franchise is, but the songs are just so annoying and poorly choreographed that I just don’t get it.

Either way, I hope BOP is wrong, but now I am very, very nervous at the prospect that High School Musical 3 will, indeed, be a box office monster.