On January 25, 2008, shortly after Heath Ledger’s death, I conjectured on whether the actor would win an Oscar posthumously for his portrayal of the Joker in the upcoming movie The Dark Knight. The Heath Ledger Oscar post is here, and examines the chances of actors winning awards after their deaths. It’s a rare feat indeed.

Now, six months later, on the eve of the release of The Dark Knight, critics are echoing what fans have only guessed based on 20 seconds worth of footage, that Heath Ledger should and will receive an Oscar nomination for his role as the Joker. In this article, AP writer David Germain drills into the what-if’s, James Dean and the cautious marketing approach Warner Brothers is taking to tout Ledger’s performance and get him a nomination.

The Dark Knight movie reviews I’ve seen so far for have been just short of heavenly, and Ledger is getting immense praise. At this point, it’s almost certain that Ledger will receive an Oscar nomination. The bigger question is whether he can defy the odds and actually win an Oscar more than a year after his death?

The Oscars are over, and it was a pretty good show. No Country for Old Men was the clear victor, taking Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Motion Picture. I would have liked to see things spread around a bit more as the competition was fierce (and, thanks to the lack of an ending for the Coen Brothers’ film, better, more deserving films), but am not surprised.

Javier Bardem deserved his Oscar, as did Marion Cotillard for her amazing performance in La Vie En Rose. Not only was she most deserving of her award, but she was also a bit of a surprise victory, and the most emotional winner. Surprisingly, the winners that the audience connected with the most were Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, the lead actors and singers of the Oscar-winning song “Falling Slowly”, from Once. There actually would have been a riot had this movie not won for Best Original Song, and the Oscar crew recognized this to the point where they actually let Irglova back onto the stage after a commercial break to allow her to finish her acceptance speech. Classy.

Daniel Day-Lewis, of course, won for Best Actor. Has anyone else noticed that on screen, he always look so tough and powerful, yet off screen, he always looks like he’s on the verge of death? Anyway, I was happy to see him win, and seriously would have murdered my neighbors if someone stole Oscar gold from him.

Thank God Atonement won for Best Original Score. Any film that can incorporate a typewriter into its score deserves an award… Why wasn’t There Will Be Blood nominated in this category, though?

There were only two awards that really shocked me:

• Tilda Swinton, for Best Supporting Actress. She was great, but I was almost certain Cate Blanchett would win for I’m Not There. That was a career-best performance for the actress, and I have to wonder whether her dual nominations split her own votes. Still, I was disappointed to see her not fully recognized for such a groundbreaking performance.
• The Golden Compass, for Best Visual Effects. Are you kidding me? This was the weakest film of the three, and Transformers should have won handily. I was disappointed that 300 wasn’t nominated in the category; I’m even more disappointed that The Golden Compass somehow won. I didn’t even know enough people even saw that film.

So, overall, it was a great, streamlined presentation. Jon Stewart didn’t have a great opening, but he threw in enough quality jokes to get by. The joke about Jack getting more women pregnant before the end of the night was a good one. The montages were also quite good and not time killers, and the production only ran 20 minutes overboard. The binoculars montage was probably the highlight of the evening.

Who will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor at this year’s Academy Awards? All I can say is… Holy shit, what a battle!

Here are some excerpts from my movie reviews in 2007:

“While there are several actors who turn in Oscar worthy performances in the film, it is Javier Bardem who blows everyone else away.” – No Country for Old Men review

“Come Oscar time, though, it is unlikely we’ll be hearing Clooney’s name, but I pray to God that the talk of the town will be about Tom Wilkinson. Wilkinson has found the dream role here, and I will be shocked if a supporting actor nod doesn’t come his way.” – Michael Clayton review

“The show stealer, however, is Hoffman. Hoffman, who plays CIA agent Gust Avrakotos, is absolutely incredible, and one of my picks for Best Supporting Actor.” – Charlie Wilson’s War review

“Sadly, due to the box office performance of the movie, I would be a bit surprised to see either of these men [Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck] nominated, but both truly deliver Oscar-worthy performances.” – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford review

The only actor I didn’t give props to in my reviews was Hal Holbrook, but even he did a stellar job in a rather small and understated role. Compared to the other actors, however, the only thing going for him is his age. Simply put:

• Javier Bardem will win, and he’s my choice to win. Why? Bardem plays an absolute bad ass, seriously one of the most disturbing and psychotic characters in cinema history. Beyond that, he is the one actor who’s coming out of a successful movie: both audiences and critics alike have given the film praise, and it has the box office dollars to back that praise up. It also doesn’t help that No Country for Old Men is one of the front runners to win it all. I’m not as confident about this victory as I am with other categories as the competition is so fierce, but I’m betting low odds that Bardem will win Best Supporting Actor at 2008’s Academy Awards.
• Tom Wilkinson is phenomenal in Michael Clayton, but there is one big problem: the movie tanked at the box office because no one saw it. His performance is truly Oscar worthy, but I just haven’t heard his name discussed. The acting has taken a back seat to the overall delivery of the film, and Wilkinson is an unfortunate victim of a variety of circumstances.
• Philip Seymour Hoffman is the best part about Charlie Wilson’s War, but unfortunately the movie received only so-so kudos from critics and audiences largely ignored the comedy-drama. I just never pictured Charlie Wilson’s War to be a major contender, and it also hurts Hoffman that he recently won an Oscar for Best Actor just a little while back. His character is also supplied more for comic relief, and that won’t go over as well with voters.
• Casey Affleck probably delivered the best performance in 2007 that no one saw. I mean, most people haven’t even heard of Assassination… Ford (I get sick of writing the title out), let alone seen it. Both Affleck and Pitt are great in the movie, though their performances are rather subtle. I think this movie showed that Affleck is truly capable of great performances when given the right material, but voters will look at his age and assume he’ll have more chances on down the line. Oh, and Affleck is the main character in the movie… but I won’t go on about how he shouldn’t be allowed in the Best Supporting Actor category.
• The only way that this award will disappoint me is if Hal Holbrook wins. He is very good in his role, but his role is neither as big or as grand as his competitors. What he does have going for him – and this worries me – is that he is old, so voters may suspect he may die before he turns in another great performance, and that voters may try to make up for the fact that Into the Wild was largely ignored at the Oscars by giving him a medal.

The Best Supporting Actor Oscar category is an extremely competitive category and every actor involved deserves recognition, but No Country for Old Men will rightfully carry Javier Bardem to the podium.

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Animated Picture at 2008’s Academy Award show? The nominations are three:

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf’s Up

As people have surmised from my other posts, Ratatouille is my easy pick for Best Animated Picture. The movie (temporarily) showed up on my Top Ten Movies of 2007, was one of my recommendations for Best Visual Effects, and is just an all around great movie. The movie is smart and witty, to the point where it’s actually been nominated for an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. How many animated films get that respect?

I have yet to see Persepolis, but it looks quite good and could certainly be a dark horse winner. The problem with this “animated” West Bank film taking home the Academy Award is that adult-only cartoons rarely win Oscars and that few of the voters have probably seen the movie. Ratatouille has been out on DVD for months, guaranteeing that nearly every voter has probably popped it in for a viewing. I would be very surprised if Persepolis beat out Ratatouille, Pixar’s best movie since The Incredibles.

As for Surf’s Up, this is the obligatory third wheel nomination. In actually, the movie, about surfing penguins, is much better than the previews made it out to be, but its documentary-style approach and lack of spectacular visuals won’t resonate as Best Animated Film material.

I haven’t seen many blogs discussing this, so I thought I’d raise the question: Could Heath Ledger win an Oscar for his portrayal of The Joker in the upcoming Batman movie The Dark Knight? At the very least, could he receive an Oscar nomination?

The thought is unlikely – after all, action movies – especially action movies based on comic books featuring a man dressed up in a rubber bat suit – are hardly critical fodder for nominations of any sort outside of a few technical awards such as editing and visual effects. Jack Nicholson didn’t receive any major awards, or nominations, for his portrayal of Batman’s arch nemesis – and yet he was praised for his performance and is, at least for a few more months, still considered to have the best comic book villain performance ever.

But… is Academy Award recognition, whether it be through a win or a nomination, that unreasonably for the late Heath Ledger, who died earlier this week from an apparent drug overdose? Let’s look at the possibilities:

• Heath Ledger already has an Oscar nomination for his excellent performance in Brokeback Mountain. Repeat nominees often have a better chance.
• Heath Ledger was a good looking guy, and in his upcoming role, he plays a disfigured psychopath. Oscar voters love good-looking people who make themselves ugly (though this tend to applies more to women than men).
• The Dark Knight is a comic book movie, yes, but of all of the comic book movies that could have had a chance at award nominations, Oscar or otherwise, Batman Begins is the most serious, dramatically significant, character-driven film of them all. Expectations are that The Dark Knight is going to have the same brooding, dark approach to it that the previous film had.
• The Dark Knight is directed for Christopher Nolan, who so far has yet to direct a bad movie. Popular, critically favored directors can help elevate a film and its actors.
• The buzz around Heath Ledger’s performance, even before his death, was and is huge. Snippets of his performance that have been seen in trailers and clips have been downright terrifying.
• It looks like Heath Ledger has transformed himself into the villain of villains, and will do what no other actor has done: to overshadow Jack Nicholson’s portrayal of The Joker.
• Some people are blaming Heath Ledger’s death on his devotion and submersion into his role as The Joker; the actor was apparently only sleeping a couple hours a night because The Joker was so disturbing and evil. It is possible that Ledger overdosed on sleeping pills. Essentially, it is possible that Heath Ledger “died” as a result of playing The Joker.
• Heath Ledger is dead. Let’s face it – the emotional vote is in his favor.

To push on my last point a little more, madbeast.com says there are six actors to be nominated for acting Oscars posthumously:

• Jeanne Eagels received a Best Actress nomination months after dying of a Heroin overdose.
• James Dean received two nominations after his fatal car crash.
• Spencer Tracy received his ninth Best Actor nomination after dying.
• Peter Finch died of a heart attack some say was a result of an exhaustive effort to win the Oscar for Network. After WINNING THE AWARD, his costar and fellow nominee William Holden said, “If the son of a bitch
  hadn’t died, I could have won my second Oscar.” Hmm…
• Ralph Richardson died five months before his Tarzan movie was released; he was subsequently nominated.
• Massimo Troisi died a day after completing Il Postino; he received nominations for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay.

So, again, we realize that a Batman film is an unlikely place to find an Oscar-winning performance in any way or form, but actors have been nominated posthumously before. The Dark Knight comes out in the summer, not a very good time to showcase an actor’s capabilities for Oscar voters, but the film will be hitting DVD sometime before Christmas, and it will hit big. Every voter will see the movie, and every voter will be reminded of Heath Ledger’s death.

Until that day, who knows, but it’s certainly an interesting prospect. What do you think?

The Oscars are almost upon us! Sure, the writer’s strike may destroy things, but I’m pretty sure everything will be resolved before February 24th, 2008. Anyway, the Academy Award nominations for 2007 movies were released yesterday, and today I re-launched my Oscar database with all nominees and winners for years 2004 through 2006, and the nominees for 2007.

I’m sure you’ve already checked them out, but here are the 2007 Oscar nominations on FilmJabber.

Over the next several weeks, I will analyze each category with my picks, predictions and thoughts. Who do I think was snubbed? Who got lucky? Which categories are most competitive, and which are a near absolute?

Let me just say that I am pretty impressed with the Oscar nominations this year. I knew that The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford wouldn’t get nominated for Best Picture, even though it was brilliant, but the movie did get recognized in a few categories, most notably Casey Affleck for Best Supporting Actor (even though he was the leading actor in the film). This is a film and actor that could have easily been overlooked, but the Academy voters were smart enough to recognize some great stuff when they saw it.

There are a couple categories where I haven’t chosen a pick yet, since I’ve only seen one film out of the five (in the Best Actress category, I’ve only seen Juno). Best Supporting Actor is an amazingly tough choice. Interestingly enough, while I choice Atonement as the best movie of the year in my Top 10 Movies of 2007, I’m rooting for There Will Be Blood to win. It’s just a bolder film, and I will be a bit surprised if it wins (since it will split votes with No Country for Old Men).

View my picks for the 2007 Academy Awards (or are they the 2008 Academy Awards?). Please note that these are MY PICKS, and not necessarily MY PREDICTIONS. Those will come later.