Yes, G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra overcame incredibly bad buzz and horribly cheesy movie trailers to make $56.2 million in its opening weekend, the fourth-highest August opening ever. This amounts to a per-screen average of over $14,000.

I am floored. With everything that I have seen over the last eight months regarding this money, I was hoping – almost fanatically praying – that audiences would ignore the strong brand name and give it a $20 million opening or so. I thought it was going to be this year’s Speed Racer. But I fell into the trap movie buffs like me can fall into so easily: I took my personal opinions and extended them to expectations for the film’s box office performance. I ignored the fact that Paramount has been marketing this film relentlessly; that they were being very selective about who they screened the movie to; that this movie is, in fact, using one of the strongest toy and cartoon brands out there; and that people will go see mindless action films.

But, America… why?

The only dignity I can hold onto is that despite its fantastic opening, G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra is rumored to have cost $200 million (with a lot more spent on marketing) and that it is highly unlikely the film well get to that level. The people who wants to see this movie saw it this weekend; and next weekend, it will plummet over 60%. But I’m no box office expert, so that’s just me hoping.

In other weekend box office news, Julie & Julia opened strong in second with $20.1 million, a pretty good take for a cutesy movie that didn’t seem to have  a very strong hook. Funny People plummeted to fifth with only $7.9 million, making this movie Judd Apatow’s first directorial failure. A Perfect Getaway, despite a 71% fresh rating from the Top Critics, opened in seventh with only $5.8 million – a poor release date and lack of promotion killed this one. Lastly, the excellent romantic film (500) Days of Summer broke into tenth place with $3.7 million against only 817 venues.

For the full list of box office winners and losers, visit the FilmJabber homepage or read Box Office Prophet’s analysis.

Given just how bad The Da Vinci Code was, and how much more brand recognition that Dan Brown book has versus this one, $48 million can’t really be considered a disappointment; in fact, it’s a little higher than what some analysts were predicting. Still, for a middle-of-May “blockbuster,” $48 million isn’t all that much, and given its rather dismal reviews, strong legs may not be in its future. Expect this one to fade quickly, at least domestically (internationally, the movie has already made over $100 million, so no one can truly consider it a box office disappointment).

Star Trek dropped only 43% in its second weekend, a sign of strong legs. This movie is soon going to surpass X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which made $14.8 million this weekend after a 44% drop, despite starting out with a lower opening weekend a week later.

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past continues to show that there is room for counterprogramming, as it dropped 33% to bring its total up to $40 million.

Visit the FilmJabber homepage for the full box office top ten. I get my numbers from Box Office Prophets, who do a great weekend recap each week.

This new Star Trek sailed through that number sometime on Saturday, and will finish out the box office weekend with an estimated $76.5 in box office receipts. Saturday’s numbers were higher than Friday’s, indicating that the picture isn’t completely frontloaded due to a fan boy rush, either – which isn’t all that surprising given the general appeal this picture has. For the first time ever, my casual moviegoing friends, including all of my female friends, want to go see a Star Trek film, and that says something.

Sure, $76.5 million isn’t as huge of an opening as last week’s blockbuster blunder X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but no one was expecting it to top that one. However, given that Wolverine plummeted 68% to only $27 million in its second weekend, it’s quite likely that Star Trek – with glowing reviews and strong word of mouth – will surpass the film in a long run.

J.J. Abrams has successfully rebooted the Star Trek franchise, and Trekkies who have been upset about the changes made should rethink their position: it’s either this or nothing, and this is pretty damn good.

In other box office weekend news, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past showed good legs given its lack of competition, as it dropped only 30% to $10 million this weekend. Next Day Air, the only other new release and one that no one has even heard of (I haven’t seen a single commercial or preview) debuted with only $4 million, albeit on just over 1,000 screens.

As I’ve said before, I’m no box office expert and won’t pretend to be, but here are what some other websites are saying:

• $60 million – National Post
• $55 million – Cinematical
• $60 million – SlashFilm
• $53 million – Rope of Silicon
• $76 million – Motion Select
• $65.3 million – Box Office Prophets

Frankly, while Motion Select may be the least reputable site on the list (no offense meant, but I just did a Google search and went down the list), I have to think that a $70+ million opening is in the works for Quantum of Solace. If Madagascar 2 can make $60+ million last weekend, aimed at a younger demographic, why can’t the new James Bond blow that number out of the water?

While Quantum of Solace isn’t getting amazing reviews, it isn’t getting bad ones, and I have to give this film some comparison to Batman Begins and The Dark Knight. Fans were hesitant about the renewed Batman franchise, found out it was good, and then gave broad approval to its sequel earlier this year. Of course, this latest Bond flick isn’t receiving those stellar reviews, doesn’t feature a tragic and Oscar-worthy performance, so on and so forth, but Casino Royale has its similarities to Batman Begins: it took an established, struggling franchise in an entirely new and darker direction; it opened quite well, but made its real gains on word-of-mouth; it also set itself up for something bigger and better.

More than likely, the box office analysts are right, but I won’t be shocked if they are woefully underprojecting here. Only six more hours until my midnight showing at the Cinerama…

Personally, I thought High School Musical 2 was one of the worst movies I have seen in a very long time; though I am outside of the target market, I just don’t get it. The music is bad, the choreography terrible and the story so sanitized that I don’t get how anybody outside of the most protective of families could enjoy it. Maybe they mixed things up for High School Musical 3, but I highly doubt it.

Anyway, congrats to Disney for turning the most-watched TV movie franchise into a lucrative box office behemoth.

The best thing about High School Musical 3’s box office success? Lionsgate can’t claim complete victory as Saw V opened in second place. The bad news? The movie still made $12.3 million on Friday, good for about $29 million (UPDATE: $30 million) over the weekend. We’re starting to see the gleam come off the Saw movies, but only just. As long as the Saw movies continue to make more in their opening weekend than their entire budget, Lionsgate will continue to produce this crap.

Pride and Glory, the new movie starring Ed Norton and Colin Farrell, opened to only $2.2 million on Friday, good for just over $6 for the box office weekend.

The Jack Black family film Kung Fu Panda, the first big animated movie of the year, earned $20.3 million on Friday according to Box Office Prophets, which means that the DreamWorks picture is expected to make approximately $65 million over the course of the weekend. Aside from the Shrek movies, this is DreamWork’s biggest animated opening ever.

As for Adam Sandler, who didn’t suffer either. Most analysts had his movie pegged at making $15-20 million less than the more family-friendly fare opening this weekend, and they were right. However, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, where Sandler plays a former Israeli counter terrorist who moves to New York to fulfill his dream of cutting hair only to be pursued by his former enemies, earned $15.2 million on Friday, which should lead to a $41 million opening. Those who were questioning whether Sandler’s time was fading after the disappointing Chuck and Larry were… wrong.

From the numbers I pulled yesterday, Entertainment Weekly was closest to estimating Panda’s numbers, as it had predicted $60 million in box office receipts. They were the second worst at predicting Zohan’s numbers, however. Box Office Report came closest to predicting Zohan’s numbers with a $38 million box office estimate.

Neither film looks particularly good. Kung Fu Panda seems like a lot of special effects without much substance, as the previews fail to suggest that there’s much of a story or comedy to be found. Seriously, the previews aren’t funny at all, and if I want to watch Kung Fu, I’ll watch Bruce Lee. As for Zohan, I always hold out hope that Adam Sandler can deliver something entertaining – and there are some funny moments in the previews – but after I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry turned out to be pretty terrible, I am hesitant.

Needless to say, neither film inspires much love from me, and unless I want to see Sex and the City this weekend, this may be a good couple of days to relax and enjoy the warm weather. Unfortunately, I live in Seattle, where it’s in the 50’s and raining.

On to the weekend box office predictions for the movie. I’m no box office expert, so I’ll leave the analysis to all the so-called box office experts floating around on the Internet. May was a tough month for box office analysts, though you can hardly blame them. Who would have thought Iron Man would open to $100 million? That Prince Caspian would so under-deliver? That Sex and the City would dominate so mightily? That The Strangers would actually do well? Anyway, here are the weekend box office predictions for the June 6 – 8 weekend:

• Blog Critics Magazine estimates $48 million for Panda and $34 million for Zohan.
• Digressions with Mark the Movie Guy estimates $55 million for Panda and $30-32 million for Zohan
• Box Office Prophets estimates $57 million for Panda and $30 million for Zohan
• Box Office Report shows $52 million for Panda and $38 million for Zohan
• Box Office Psychics has Panda at $45 million and Zohan at $37 million
• Rotten Tomatoes says Panda will earn $52 million versus Zohan’s $35 million
• EW.com has Panda making a whopping $60 million against Zohan’s $32 million
• Box Office Guru puts Panda at $52 million and Zohan at $35 million

So, it looks like Adam Sandler really doesn’t stand a chance, which is not really too surprising. Kung Fu Panda appeals to the masses; You Don’t Mess with the Zohan will appeal to Sandler fans. It’ll be interesting to see how Panda actually does, though, as there are bound to be some more box office disappointments over the course of the summer.

View more new releases this weekend…